Arkansas papers have been buzzing with talk about Lincoln's declining approval ratings; which are at the lowest level since she took office in 1999. Right now 42 percent of Arkansans have a favorable opinion of her and 46 have an unfavorable opinion. She has dropped almost 11 percent in the last year and that can be attributed to her stance on healthcare.
She is one of several moderates whose support is key for health reform. Senator Lincoln says she does not support a government run, government funded option, but says the country needs to reform its health care system. Arkansas has the second largest senior citizen population and that is a big part of Lincoln’s health care problems. Concerns about potential Medicare cuts and increases in taxes are frightening these people.
The problem is Arkansans don't feel the same way as Lincoln. According to the University of Arkansas' Arkansas poll 48 percent opposed a public option and 39 supported a new health insurance plan to compete with private health insurance plans. Thirty percent of Arkansans believe that no matter what happens, health care standards will remain the same.
If Senator Lincoln does vote in favor of health care reform; does that seal her fate? Not quite, there is still plenty of time for the political environment to change. However, this decrease does make her look vulnerable and gives her opponents room to make a little noise. Lincoln herself blames the drop on heavy campaigning against her by advocacy groups.
Seven Republican have already announced they will seek the GOP nomination. Democratic State Senate President Bob Johnson says he may challenge Lincoln in the primary. Chairman of the Arkansas Republican Party, Doyle Webb, predicts that the seat will change hands. But Political Science Professor at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock isn't so sure. He thinks Lincoln will win, but it will be a struggle. The Arkansas poll also found that most Arkansans aren’t paying attention to the 2010 campaign yet. So things could change in the heat of the 2010 battle.
Another poll found that Lincoln could really hurt if she doesn’t support the health care legislation. The Research 2000 Arkansas Poll says that if Lincoln joins Republicans in opposing the bill, because it has a strong public option, she will alienate more voters then she will attract. Members of her own party would be more likely to turn against her in such great numbers that it would be easy for to be defeated.
Senator Lincoln is facing what all representatives do at some point. Does she side with her party or with her constituents back home? Either way there will be consequences. Even with all the chatter around the state, the election is a little less than a year and that's plenty of time for the tides to change.
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